5 developments in a changing automotive industry

The car of the future is: Electric, Autonomous driving, Shared (shared car), Connective and 'Yearly updated' in short, you will arrive at: EASCY. Five developments that have major consequences for the car recycling industry.

Development 1: ELECTRIC

Researchers from the University of Birmingham calculated that one million electric cars at the end of their life account for 250 tons of battery waste. And to think that by 2040, 57% of new cars sold will be electric, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The batteries of those 56 million electric cars will soon be able to fill more than 3,750 Olympic swimming pools on an annual basis. An unprecedented mountain of waste. Of course, battery packs will become more compact and advanced in the future, but a significant waste stream is imminent. The question is whether the current pyro- and hydrometallurgical techniques will survive. According to researchers at the University of Birmingham, these processing methods are energy-intensive. When battery packs are melted, next to a valuable alloy, a slag remains, toxic gases are released and the recovered materials are often of low quality, the research team says. It therefore advocates direct recycling. The cathodes are directly recovered for reuse. The phase of melting back to the base material can then be skipped. Bio-mining, in which microbes help to recover valuable materials, is also proposed as an alternative.

Development 2: AUTONOMOUS DRIVING

The autonomous driving car will never collide again. This fact gives designers enormous design freedom, because they no longer have to draw in airbags and crumple zones in the design sketch. Not even a steering wheel. They just hide the electric powertrain in the floor. Now that the car no longer has to be crash-proof, other materials can be used and other constructions can be devised. The car as we know it today is expected to take on a completely different shape. It will be a living room, bedroom or office on wheels. Or maybe even all three in one! The design chief of the American General Motors foresees a complete change. “You are almost an interior architect or a furniture designer.” The car recycling industry will have to respond to these changes.

Development 3: SHARED

The average car in the Netherlands lasts almost 19 years. The tendency is that the end-of-life car is getting older as a result of better build quality. In 2010, a car still arrived at the dismantling company after an average of 16.2 years. In 2019, that had risen to 18.8 years. In the long term, car manufacturer Ford foresees a life cycle of only four years. After all, the autonomous shared car of the future will hardly stand still, which will shorten its life cycle enormously. Just think: currently, cars in the Netherlands spend almost 96% of the time unused in a parking space. Due to the sharply reduced lifespan in combination with the predicted annual hardware updates (see development 1), the car recycling industry has to anticipate changing material use much faster. Plus the construction and production methods used.

Development 4: CONNECTIVE

The connected car is full of valuable materials The car is getting smarter. According to consultancy firm Deloitte, electronics already account for 40 percent of the cost of a car.In 2025, that will even rise to 45 percent. The car is gaining connectivity and is packed with displays, computers, sensors, lidars and more. Many of these high-tech components contain valuable or scarce materials. Gold, cobalt, lithium, neodymium and more. The demand for these materials is increasing enormously. According to Maria Ljunggren Söderman, researcher at Chalmers University in Sweden, we now use nine times more neodymium in cars than in 2000. In addition, every new car contains about two grams of gold. “Our calculation shows that end-of-life vehicles currently contain just as much gold as all discarded electronic equipment.” Not all of this material is always recovered, because it is very labour-intensive (and therefore expensive). Ljunggren Söderman believes that 20 tons of gold are lost annually in car recycling, as well as many other precious or scarce materials. She therefore argues for clearer guidelines regarding the recovery of valuable materials. She also believes that government or industry incentives can help.

Read More - Auto Outlet software

Development 5: YEARLY UPDATED

A new car model currently – including an interim facelift – lasts about five to eight years. In the future, a car will become obsolete after just one year, according to Autofacts, part of consultancy firm PwC. The hardware and software developments then go so fast that 'annual updates' become essential. It is not currently expected that consumers will buy a new car every year, but the car sharing industry does seem sensitive to the lightning-fast developments. And now let that market grow enormously. According to PwC, 47 percent of European consumers are willing to give up their own car if an affordable autonomous robo-taxi service is introduced. That can go fast. The most optimistic scenario assumes that by 2035 we will already be making 70 percent of our kilometers by robo-taxi.

The annual hardware upgrades require a steep learning curve within the automotive recycling industry. In order to continue to achieve optimal recycling percentages, the industry must continue to respond to the most recently used materials and production techniques. In line with this, the periodic revision of European directives , such as the ELV directive and the Batteries directive  – now every five years – will require a shorter cycle. This is the only way they can keep up with current market developments.

Decrease in car ownership in Europe in the long run

In addition to 'EASCY', another important development is observable. Worldwide, the number of cars will grow strongly in the coming decades. According to figures from research firm Bernstein, there will be nearly two billion cars on the planet by 2040. In 2015, there were still 1.1 billion. Significant growth is expected, especially in China and India. For recycling facilities there, this means that they will have to grow with them. However, a downward spiral is visible in Europe. PwC expects car ownership in Europe to decline from 2025, after reaching a peak of 273 million cars in that year.

Scenario trajectory Futureconsult

ARN is currently working on a scenario project together with Futureconsult. Four specific car recycling scenarios will be formulated based on general trends. These four scenarios will be the reason for a series of articles on Green Light in the coming period. In the scenario process, stakeholders of ARN will also be explicitly invited to enter into a dialogue about this. The kick-off of this will take place in October during the ARN Relations Day 2020.